Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Glaciology Année : 2023

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Résumé

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
amundsen-sea-embayment-ice-sheet-mass-loss-predictions-to-2050-calibrated-using-observations-of-velocity-and-elevation-change.pdf (15) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-04672880 , version 1 (19-08-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Suzanne Bevan, Stephen Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inés Otosaka, Daniel Martin, et al.. Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change. Journal of Glaciology, 2023, pp.1 - 11. ⟨10.1017/jog.2023.57⟩. ⟨hal-04672880⟩

Collections

PROTECT
7 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More