Learning About Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions
Résumé
Climate change is causing sea levels to rise as land ice melts under higher air temperatures. By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise between 28 and 101 cm, depending on the extent of future global warming. This will increase the risk of coastal flooding in the future and require adaptation actions. Planning for coastal adaptation to sea level rise is challenged by long-lived protective infrastructure and uncertain projections of sea level rise. Adaptive decision-making methods that specifically incorporate future learning about the uncertainty of sea level rise can address this challenge. For example, observing 30 cm of sea level rise in 2060 will lead to different projections from 2050 onwards and require different adaptation actions than observing 70 cm of sea level rise in 2060. To date, economic adaptation studies that account for future learning about sea level rise uncertainty are rare, and those that do exist have relied on simple methods. We develop a decision framework to address this research gap and apply it to the city of Lübeck on the Baltic Sea in Germany. Our results show that the city of Lübeck is currently under-protected against storm surges and that immediate adaptation actions are advisable from an economic perspective.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnementOrigine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
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licence |